China's energy consumption will stabilize well before mid-century, even as its population soars past 1.4 billion due to a phenomenon known as saturation, according to a study by Berkeley Lab's China Energy Group.
Mark Levine, co-author of the report, "China's Energy and Carbon Emissions Outlook to 2050," says that, "There's been a perception that China's rising prosperity means runaway growth in energy consumption. Our study shows this won't be the case." According to this forecast, the steeply rising curve of energy demand in China will begin to moderate between 2030 and 2035 and flatten out thereafter.
Berkley Lab also examined the types of vehicles expected to roam China's roads over the next 40 or so years and that's where this study shocks us.
First, an explanation of CIS and AIS is needed. For that, we turn to Berkley Lab:
A baseline (Continued Improvement Scenario or CIS) and an alternative energy efficiency scenario (Accelerated Improvement Scenario or AIS) have been developed to assess the impact of actions already taken by the Chinese government, planned or proposed actions, and actions that may not yet have been considered, in order to evaluate the potential for China to control energy demand growth and mitigate CO2 emissions.
Under the AIS scenario (shown above right), Berkley Lab predicts that, come 2050, more than 90 percent of the vehicles on China's roads will be either hybrids or electrics, with gasoline-only vehicles representing far less than 10 percent of all the automobiles on the streets.
The CIS model (above left) paints a decidedly different picture of China's automotive future. However, it still shows that more than 70 percent of the vehicles in China in 2050 will be equipped with electrified powertrains.
em: http://green.autoblog.com/2011/05/05/st ... ectrified/
